Magic City Classic Preview: Are The Numbers Deceiving?

By Damein Green

Based on previous games, many believe the 2025 Magic City Classic is headed toward an Alabama State blowout. Anything is possible with God, but usually the quickest hot takes in sports lack sophistication of thought.

ASU came within one play of an upset victory against JSU two weeks ago, losing 38-34. The same JSU that dragged AAMU by the dog collar for over 700 yards of total offense. Therefore, since A equals B, and B equals C, then A must also equal C, right?

Not so fast.

Transitive relations don’t necessarily apply to college football and surely are more complicated in rivalry games. While the Hornets have some advantages, so do the Bulldogs. Or do they? Let’s look at the AAMU/ASU matchup by the numbers. Note: the rationale behind the advantage is based on statistical rank of previous output.

AAMU Offense vs. ASU Defense 

The Bulldog offense is averaging 31 points per game off 412 yards per game, against a Hornet defense that allows an average of 25 points per game of slightly over 400 yards per game. The Bulldogs have struggled to establish the run, while the Hornets have struggled to stop opponents from moving the chains on 1st and 2nd down. Advantage: Bulldogs…if they can stay away from 3rd and 4th down.

AAMU Defense vs. ASU Offense

Here’s where things can get ugly for the Bulldogs. Andrew Body is averaging nearly 300 yards per game in the air and another 100 ypg on the ground, and that’s just one player. The Bulldog defense thus far has struggled against the run and the pass. AAMU will have to shut down Body either through the air or on the ground, but they can’t allow themselves to get “Vick’ed” by the quarterback. Advantage: ASU offense. Overall forecast based on both teams offensive and defensive production thus far? Potential Shootout.

Special Teams

Many fans often forget about the 3rd phase of the game, but the coaches and players sure don’t. AAMU hasn’t missed a field goal or extra point all year and has a slight advantage on kickoff and punt returns. If the Bulldogs can pull off a miracle performance on defense, the game may come down to the kicking game. Anyone remember Nick Carden’s game winning field goal in the 2016 Classic?

Bottom line: if the Bulldogs want to win the 2025 Magic City Classic, they will need a defensive performance for the ages, or as we call it in the analytical space, “significantly different from the average.” In a rivalry game such as the Classic, the stats can tell you which way the wind is blowing, but just like the weather, it’s just a forecast.